Tropical Storm Gordon Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018 500 PM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018 ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND STORM SURGE WARNING EXTENDED EASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.2N 82.6W ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM WSW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHESWATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning has been extended eastward to Dauphin Island, Alabama. A Hurricane Warning has been issued from the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama-Florida Border. This warning replaces the Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning for this area. The Tropical Storm Warning for the Upper Florida Keys and from Golden Beach to Chokoloskee, including Florida Bay, has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Shell Beach to Dauphin Island A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * West of Shell Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River * East of Dauphin Island to Navarre
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama-Florida Border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach * West of the Mouth of the Pearl River to east of Morgan City, Louisiana, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas * Alabama-Florida Border to Okaloosa-Walton County Line
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning areas. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was located by NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 82.6 West. Gordon is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and a west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the next 72 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Gordon will move farther away from the southwestern coast of Florida early this evening, and move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Tuesday. The center of Gordon will approach the central Gulf Coast within the warning area late Tuesday or Tuesday night, and move inland over the lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours, and Gordon is expected to be a hurricane when it makes landfall along the central Gulf Coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches) based on earlier reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Shell Beach to Dauphin Island, Alabama...3 to 5 ft. Navarre Florida to Dauphin Island, including Mobile Bay...2 to 4 ft. Shell Beach to the Mouth of Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft. Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Louisiana-Texas border...1 to 2 ft. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Gordon is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the northwestern Bahamas, Florida Keys, and South Florida through early Tuesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches are possible over the southern Florida peninsula. Gordon is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over southern Alabama, southern and central Mississippi, and southeastern and northeastern Louisiana, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches through late Thursday. These rainfall amounts may cause flash flooding.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue for the next few hours in the warning area across southwestern Florida. Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the central Gulf Coast warning area by late Tuesday, with hurricane conditions expected late Tuesday or Tuesday night in the hurricane warning area.
TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible through tonight across the southern and west-central Florida Peninsula.
Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018 500 PM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018 Data from an earlier Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission, along with Doppler velocity data from the Miami radar, indicate that Gordon has strengthened a little more, with some these data supporting an intensity of about 50 kt. However, since the earlier 5-n mi-diameter eye has eroded and inner-core convection has become somewhat ragged, the initial intensity remains 45 kt. The initial motion estimate is 300/15 kt. The latest model guidance is still in excellent agreement on Gordon maintaining a west- northwestward to northwestward motion for the next 48-72 hours right up until landfall as a strong ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast to remain locked in place over the southeastern U.S. and mid-Atlantic states. Although the guidance has shifted slightly back to the left, no appreciable changes were made to the previous forecast track since the models have been 'windshield-wipering' back and forth over the past 24 hours. The new NHC track forecast is similar to or a little north of the latest consensus models. Overall, Gordon's presentation in both radar and satellite imagery has steadily improved since the previous advisory. Although the inner-core structure has eroded somewhat, outer banding features have improved and now extend as far north as central and northern Florida. The GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS intensity models continue to indicate that westerly to northwesterly wind shear of 10-15 kt is expected to affect Gordon for the next 36 hours, a flow pattern that would generally hinder development. However, the global models' upper-level wind fields show Gordon remaining near or underneath a synoptic-scale upper-level anticyclone, a more favorable pattern that supports at least steady strengthening. Since Gordon will be moving over very warm sea-surface temperatures of about 30 C, the cyclone is forecast to reach hurricane strength in 24-36 hours, just before landfall. For that reason, a Hurricane Warning has been issued for portions of the central Gulf Coast. The NHC intensity forecast is a little above the previous advisory, and is close to a blend of the consensus models HCCA, FSSE, and IVCN. Key Messages: 1. Gordon is expected to bring life-threatening storm surge and hurricane conditions to portions of the central Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect. Residents in these areas should listen to advice from their local officials. All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion, as tropical storm conditions are expected to arrive in the warning areas Tuesday afternoon or evening. 2. Heavy rainfall from Gordon will affect southern Alabama, southern Mississippi and Louisiana, where totals could reach as high as 8 inches. This rainfall could cause flash flooding. 3. Rainfall will continue across portions of South Florida and the Florida Keys through early Tuesday, where totals could reach as high as 8 inches. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 26.2N 82.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 27.3N 84.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 28.9N 87.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 30.6N 89.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 48H 05/1800Z 32.1N 91.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 06/1800Z 34.1N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 07/1800Z 35.5N 94.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/1800Z 38.2N 94.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
NOLA Reporter 