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UPDATE: At 7:05am Central Time Tropical Storm #Gordon has formed near the Upper Florida Keys, with maximum winds of 45 mph. Tropical Storm Warnings are coming for portions of south Florida and the Keys in a Special Advisory to be issued by 9 am EDT (1300 UTC). More: http://hurricanes.gov 

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…DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY…
…HEAVY RAINS LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS…

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…25.1N 80.5W
ABOUT 5 MI…5 KM W OF KEY LARGO FLORIDA
ABOUT 35 MI…60 KM E OF CAPE SABLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1010 MB…29.82 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Mississippi-Alabama border westward to the Mouth of the
Mississippi River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Alabama-Florida border westward to east of Morgan City, Louisiana,
including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

Interests in the Florida Keys and the southern Florida peninsula
should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was located by the Miami
NOAA Doppler weather radar near latitude 25.1 North, longitude 80.5
West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph
(26 km/h) and a west-northwestward to northwestward motion is
expected over the next 72 hours. On the forecast track, the
disturbance will pass over Florida Keys and the southern portion of
the Florida peninsula this morning, move over the southeastern Gulf
of Mexico this afternoon and evening, and reach the central Gulf
Coast by late Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48
hours, and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm
later today.

Conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and this
system is forecast to become a tropical cyclone later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…near 100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…near 100 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.82 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Destin Florida to the Mississippi-Alabama border…1 to 2 ft.
Mississippi-Alabama border to the Mouth of Mississippi River…2 to
4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Louisiana-Texas border…1 to
2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area,
please see products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the central and northwestern
Bahamas, the Florida Keys, and South Florida through early Tuesday.
Isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches are possible over the southern
Florida peninsula.

The disturbance is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 6 inches over southern Alabama, southern Mississippi and
Louisiana, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches through early
Thursday.

These rainfall amounts may cause flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning area by late Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts
are possible today across portions of South Florida and the Florida
Keys.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT…

.A disturbance approaching Florida will move into the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico today and is expected to become a
tropical storm tonight as it moves through the Gulf of Mexico,
reaching the central Gulf Coast Tuesday night or Wednesday
morning.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT…

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a Tropical
Storm Warning. The Tropical Storm Watch is no longer in effect.

* WINDS…East winds increasing to 25 to 30 knots with gusts to
tropical storm force Tuesday and Tuesday night.

* WAVES/SEAS…Building to 9 to 12 feet by Tuesday over the open
Waters.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A Tropical Storm Warning means sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph
are expected due to a tropical storm within 36 hours.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT…
…STORM SURGE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT…

A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm-force winds are
expected somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
– The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
Warning for Ascension, Assumption, East Baton Rouge, Hancock,
Harrison, Iberville, Jackson, Livingston, Lower Jefferson,
Lower Lafourche, Lower Plaquemines, Lower St. Bernard, Lower
Terrebonne, Orleans, Southern Tangipahoa, St. Charles, St.
James, St. John The Baptist, St. Tammany, Upper Jefferson,
Upper Lafourche, Upper Plaquemines, Upper St. Bernard, Upper
Terrebonne, and West Baton Rouge

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
– A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Ascension,
Assumption, East Baton Rouge, Iberville, Livingston, Lower
Jefferson, Lower Lafourche, Lower Terrebonne, Southern
Tangipahoa, St. Charles, St. James, St. John The Baptist, Upper
Jefferson, Upper Lafourche, Upper Plaquemines, Upper
Terrebonne, and West Baton Rouge
– A Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Watch are in effect
for Hancock, Harrison, Jackson, Lower Plaquemines, Lower St.
Bernard, Orleans, St. Tammany, and Upper St. Bernard

* STORM INFORMATION:
– About 720 miles east-southeast of New Orleans LA or about 680
miles southeast of Gulfport MS
– 24.5N 80.2W
– Storm Intensity 30 mph
– Movement West-northwest or 300 degrees at 16 mph

* WIND
– LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
– Peak Wind Forecast: 35-45 mph with gusts to 65 mph
– Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Tuesday evening
until Wednesday morning

– POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for wind 58 to
73 mph
– The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
– PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical
storm force due to possible forecast changes in track,
size, or intensity.
– PREPARE: Efforts to protect life and property should now be
underway. Prepare for significant wind damage.
– ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind
becomes hazardous.

– POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
– Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with
damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few
buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door
failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored.
Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles.
– Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
fences and roadway signs blown over.
– Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within
urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways,
and access routes impassable.
– Scattered power and communications outages, but more
prevalent in areas with above ground lines.

* STORM SURGE
– LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening storm surge possible
– Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 2-4 feet
above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
– Window of concern: early Tuesday morning until early
Thursday evening

– POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for storm
surge flooding greater than 3 feet above ground
– The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
– PLAN: Plan for life-threatening storm surge flooding of
greater than 3 feet above ground.
– PREPARE: Evacuation efforts and flood preparations should
soon be brought to completion before conditions become
unsafe.
– ACT: Leave immediately if evacuation orders are given for
your area to avoid being cut off from emergency services or
needlessly risk lives.

– POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
– Areas of inundation from storm surge flooding. Damage to
several buildings, mainly near the coast.
– Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads
become weakened or washed out, especially in usually
vulnerable low spots. 3 to 6 feet of inundation is possible
outdide the hurricane protection levee on the east bank
near Lake Catherine and Lakefront Airport. No inundation
expected inside the hurricane protection levees on the east
bank and on the parish levee on the west bank.
– Major shoreline erosion with heavy surf. Strong and
numerous rip currents.
– Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially
in unprotected anchorages.

* FLOODING RAIN
– LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flash Flood Watch is in effect
– Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 3-6 inches, with locally
higher amounts

– POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for moderate
flooding rain
– The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
– PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues
are possible.
– PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
vulnerable to flooding.
– ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
action may result in serious injury or loss of life.

– POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
– Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations
and rescues.
– Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with
swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places,
especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams,
creeks, canals, bayous, and ditches overflow.
– Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken
foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas
of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and
poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on
moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow.
Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge
closures.

* TORNADO
– LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
– Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes

– POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Tornadoes not expected
– The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
– PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms
with gusty winds may still occur.
– PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect
against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest
tornado situation.
– ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast.

– POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
– Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
– http://www.slfpae.com/closures.aspx
– http://homeport.uscg.mil
– http://emergency.louisiana.gov

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.