Tropical Storm Gordon Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018 ...GORDON MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.9N 84.3W ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHESWATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Shell Beach to Dauphin Island A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * West of Shell Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River * East of Dauphin Island to Navarre
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama-Florida Border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West of the Mouth of the Pearl River to east of Morgan City, Louisiana, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas * Alabama-Florida Border to Okaloosa-Walton County Line
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning areas. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was located near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 84.3 West. Gordon is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Gordon will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Tuesday, and will approach the north-central Gulf Coast within the warning area late Tuesday afternoon or evening, and move inland over the lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours, and Gordon is forecast to be a hurricane when it makes landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast. Rapid weakening is expected after Gordon moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Shell Beach to Dauphin Island, Alabama...3 to 5 ft. Navarre Florida to Dauphin Island, including Mobile Bay...2 to 4 ft. Shell Beach to the Mouth of Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft. Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Louisiana-Texas border...1 to 2 ft. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Gordon is expected to produce additional rain accumulations around 1 inch, with isolated heavier amounts through Tuesday over the northwestern Bahamas and south Florida. Isolated maximum storm-total amounts of 7 inches are possible. Gordon is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over southwest Alabama, southern and central Mississippi, southeastern and northeastern Louisiana, and southeast Arkansas, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches through late Thursday. This rainfall may cause flash flooding.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin Tuesday afternoon within portions of the warning area, with hurricane conditions expected by Tuesday evening in the hurricane warning area.
Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018 WSR-88D radar data from Tampa shows that the small inner core of Gordon has lost some organization during the past few hours, and GOES-16 satellite imagery and recent aircraft fixes indicate that the low-level center is located near the southwestern edge of the main convective mass. This suggests that there may be some light to moderate westerly shear affecting the cyclone. The Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft recently measured peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 57 kt, and SFMR winds of 50-55 kt. A blend of these data yields an initial wind speed estimate of 50 kt. A UW/CIMSS shear analysis and the SHIPS model indicates that there is about 10-15 kt of westerly shear over the system. The SHIPS guidance shows a slight relaxation of the shear during the next 12-18 hours while the system moves over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, which should allow for some strengthening. However, Gordon is a small tropical cyclone and subtle changes in shear (both up and down) can result in fairly quick intensity changes for systems like this. The NHC intensity forecast assumes that shear will not be prohibitive and that Gordon will become a hurricane before reaching the northern Gulf coast. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS guidance through 24 hours, then follows the HFIP corrected consensus after landfall which shows Gordon weakening rapidly over land. Gordon is moving west-northwestward at about 15 kt. The tropical storm is expected to maintain a west-northwestward to northwestward heading during the next few days while it moves around the southwestern portion of a large deep-layer ridge centered over the Mid-Atlantic states. After that time, the cyclone should decelerate as it moves around the western periphery of the ridge. The track guidance continues to be tightly clustered through 72 h, and no significant changes were required to the previous NHC track forecast. Key Messages: 1. Gordon is expected to bring life-threatening storm surge and hurricane conditions to portions of the central Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect. Residents in these areas should listen to advice from their local officials. All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion, as tropical storm conditions are expected to arrive in the warning areas Tuesday afternoon. 2. Heavy rainfall from Gordon will affect southern Alabama, southern Mississippi and Louisiana, where totals could reach as high as 8 inches. This rainfall could cause flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 26.9N 84.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 28.3N 86.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 30.0N 88.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 31.6N 90.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 06/0000Z 32.9N 91.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 07/0000Z 34.6N 93.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 96H 08/0000Z 36.5N 94.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/0000Z 39.5N 93.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
NOLA Reporter 