Showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, western Cuba, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico are associated with a surface trough and are showing some signs of organization. This system is forecast to move slowly northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday with limited development. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for development later in the week, and a tropical depression could form on Thursday or Friday while the disturbance moves across the western Gulf of Mexico. Interests across northeastern Mexico and the coast of Texas and Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely over western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula through Tuesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.