Showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea,
western Cuba, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico are associated
with a surface trough and are showing some signs of organization.
This system is forecast to move slowly northwestward across the
Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday with limited development.  Upper-level
winds are forecast to become more conducive for development later in
the week, and a tropical depression could form on Thursday or Friday
while the disturbance moves across the western Gulf of Mexico.
Interests across northeastern Mexico and the coast of Texas and
Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system.  Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely over western
Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula through Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.